Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T23:30:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 23:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 23:50 UTC
Open price
$1,795.48
Close price
$1,793.58

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1795.480000 and closed at 1793.580000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
50%
Difference from baseline
+0.0
Opens
Jun 16 · 23:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 23:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 23:50 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 22:45 ↑ 23:00 ↓ 23:15 ↓ 23:30 ↓ — now 23:45 ↓ 00:00 ↑ 00:15 ↑ 00:30 ↑ 00:45 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 23:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T23:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 23:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
23:20:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.499 +0.1% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_MLpmeG97DG45S42NolrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 23:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 23:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.96%
Down 50.04%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1795.9205 sigma=2.2601 z=0.0131 p_up=0.4996

Commitment hash
a82082137b35171991558f480aa085f7d54f9bd7a993495470e046b47a9c28eb
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
23:20:02
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.502 -0.2% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ax15qGLZwk7ZHyA0wrO7n9zR
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 23:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 23:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.08%
Down 49.92%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.0342 edge=0.0010 sigma_short=0.001464 sigma_long=0.003161 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5008

Commitment hash
afb6efa336f5392d4b873eb861335d1bf182657dde1929d16cfc00cca418e3fe
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
23:20:02
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.502 -0.2% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_A2vnyR7GwK96cKQrDZbz3kL6
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 23:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 23:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.1%
Down 49.9%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000014 sigma=0.001831 score=0.0342 p_up=0.5010

Commitment hash
3edfa49310ea19f96bf04c1f95c461a50e8c46575a26a1a37b03bea0ae0be9b0