Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-17T00:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-17 00:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 17 · 00:20 UTC
Open price
$1,793.00
Close price
$1,794.08

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1793.000000 and closed at 1794.080000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 16 · 23:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 17 · 00:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 17 · 00:20 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 23:15 ↓ 23:30 ↓ 23:45 ↓ 00:00 ↑ — now 00:15 ↑ 00:30 ↑ 00:45 ↓ 01:00 ↓ 01:15 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-17 00:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-17T00:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 17 · 00:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
23:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.456 +4.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_0ZYdGLNvozOETajew4nX59rO
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 23:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.23%
Down 47.77%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1795.7930 sigma=2.3157 z=-0.9556 p_up=0.5223

Commitment hash
cd7572f6f156e1c2cc9d10adafc08bb7ee68c84da94523da980856d647a7f591
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
23:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.518 -1.8% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_g7xznkbOwq29cdXXVmELRlWQ
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 23:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.09%
Down 50.91%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.4003 edge=-0.0114 sigma_short=0.001447 sigma_long=0.003154 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4909

Commitment hash
d7e0dc0f5b9da7cc19a84dd5a65cd7b7a0c6d4cafadc2b193e1ee11958d52686
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
23:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.523 -2.3% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ElAm4R7KDW3EFONODWZjJOYy
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 23:50:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.86%
Down 51.14%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000165 sigma=0.001796 score=-0.4003 p_up=0.4886

Commitment hash
e198c54d14d723cdfc676dbf05a1ce5e8122a386a4abab58cb475c46e55cd477