Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-17T03:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-17 03:45 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 17 · 04:05 UTC
Open price
$1,793.33
Close price
$1,793.58

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1793.330000 and closed at 1793.580000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 17 · 03:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 17 · 03:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 17 · 04:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 03:00 ↓ 03:15 ↓ 03:30 ↑ 03:45 ↑ — now 04:00 ↑ 04:15 ↑ 04:30 ↑ 04:45 ↓ 05:00 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-17 04:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-17T03:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 17 · 04:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 17
03:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.456 +4.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_BE2kXa7Qo6ngHgQnoy18Alen
Submitted Jun 17, 2026 · 03:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-17 03:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.23%
Down 47.77%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1794.5260 sigma=3.7580 z=-0.9542 p_up=0.5223

Commitment hash
fdc7cc75e0f0c1abb51d8f0592dfd08dfec12becfe6f1ae3d531638d0ed66f70
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 17
03:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.501 -0.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_kB1Mx3X5o4zgCxAOV4nQbZN0
Submitted Jun 17, 2026 · 03:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-17 03:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.93%
Down 50.07%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.0695 edge=-0.0021 sigma_short=0.003287 sigma_long=0.002589 w=0.3500 p_up=0.4993

Commitment hash
a308ccc214ec345701a69a1c04afd99c5568139e61d56fa373e378fb30718763
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 17
03:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.504 -0.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_rQLBEm5WoP72HJ1KD9za01Y4
Submitted Jun 17, 2026 · 03:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-17 03:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.79%
Down 50.21%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000040 sigma=0.002525 score=-0.0695 p_up=0.4979

Commitment hash
f85e6726deb8336428748feea3ef3e26076259e8658f2f4db7742e61ac0d2391