Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:1h:2026-06-13T20:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-13 20:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 13 · 21:05 UTC
Open price
$1,678.30
Close price
$1,676.53

Binance ETHUSDT 1h candle opened at 1678.300000 and closed at 1676.530000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 13 · 19:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 13 · 20:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 13 · 21:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle
Series 17:00 ↓ 18:00 ↑ 19:00 ↓ 20:00 ↓ — now 21:00 ↑ 22:00 ↓ 23:00 ↓ 00:00 ↑ 01:00 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-13 21:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-13T20:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 13 · 21:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 13
19:35:06
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.457 +4.3% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_j2yMmAnQo01gimAOw1W4pqGx
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 19:35:06 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-13 20:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.8%
Down 52.2%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1673.4015 sigma=5.4999 z=0.9325 p_up=0.4780

Commitment hash
55f42d1bb86a9cce3b58384359658b70a2a696b630993b3c3f64a759997d002d
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 13
19:35:06
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.532 -3.2% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_Q6El9GNLw7xgs94BVRbZJ37v
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 19:35:06 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-13 20:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.57%
Down 48.43%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.7826 edge=0.0196 sigma_short=0.001781 sigma_long=0.004729 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5157

Commitment hash
33af15ec10fc33c1af856e95f3a2ffaf97c525bb8188be4f0c463d65c0690d95
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 13
19:35:06
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.540 -4.0% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_9EjpnQAKwO3OFEWEw5zX1eW6
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 19:35:06 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-13 20:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.96%
Down 48.04%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000381 sigma=0.002124 score=0.7826 p_up=0.5196

Commitment hash
7a31b9d722436ca264ac41f7f3a87d02b76758f6f3bb3178267bc9c957613546