Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:1h:2026-06-14T17:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 18:05 UTC
Open price
$1,661.37
Close price
$1,662.09

Binance ETHUSDT 1h candle opened at 1661.370000 and closed at 1662.090000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 14 · 16:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 17:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 18:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle
Series 14:00 ↓ 15:00 ↑ 16:00 ↓ 17:00 ↑ — now 18:00 ↓ 19:00 ↑ 20:00 ↑ 21:00 ↑ 22:00 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 18:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-14T17:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 18:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
16:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.444 +5.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_KNxe1m9koa6GC6ZZwW628Xz0
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 16:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.86%
Down 47.14%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1676.0670 sigma=6.9849 z=-1.8779 p_up=0.5286

Commitment hash
4fcfed29ebc2a9f5fe43c20b0b0f2d4ac744e1fe50ca7c795b57aa9f5b431465
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
16:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.522 -2.2% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_zKd58baJDbpLi2YJwy92enrk
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 16:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.89%
Down 51.11%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.8177 edge=-0.0202 sigma_short=0.002083 sigma_long=0.002191 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4889

Commitment hash
d1ccf36f67122574bfae5d0fa2b22f56f918dc2256e97bf210790b3625d2e6f3
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
16:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.541 -4.1% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_PG178AgpDReXuWreVeYNrJRd
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 16:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.98%
Down 52.02%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000428 sigma=0.002282 score=-0.8177 p_up=0.4798

Commitment hash
c0a48f6d6b6ea51408c44777ef58990ccd8e6ce9297b0a023abac1a07b4f185a