Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:1h:2026-06-14T21:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 21:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 22:05 UTC
Open price
$1,670.48
Close price
$1,718.67

Binance ETHUSDT 1h candle opened at 1670.480000 and closed at 1718.670000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 14 · 20:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 21:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 22:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle
Series 18:00 ↓ 19:00 ↑ 20:00 ↑ 21:00 ↑ — now 22:00 ↑ 23:00 ↑ 00:00 ↓ 01:00 ↓ 02:00 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 22:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 22:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
20:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.459 +4.1% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_dnazAerPwl9PcKK4Vb97G5lM
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 20:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 21:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.11%
Down 47.89%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1672.3270 sigma=7.9088 z=-0.8721 p_up=0.5211

Commitment hash
bcc01110ceb628b2be5965a518f1600f1ceb4c54ce3b931817e8bc65d9eca8fd
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
20:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.529 -2.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4iXXYDEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 20:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 21:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.59%
Down 51.41%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.2789 edge=-0.0257 sigma_short=0.002155 sigma_long=0.002035 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4859

Commitment hash
93ab85122daac84f3f7bd958d161413ff26200511f06ab373b48f4ae8c5dddc0
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
20:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.553 -5.3% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ElAm4R7KDW3EF88pDWZjJOYy
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 20:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 21:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.43%
Down 52.57%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000518 sigma=0.001766 score=-1.2789 p_up=0.4743

Commitment hash
ee179488e38c20b2c7ab1f237285d79c5a33bdec71cb5c2d3dfc0451a6d06358