Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:1h:2026-06-15T05:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 05:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 06:05 UTC
Open price
$1,717.05
Close price
$1,720.66

Binance ETHUSDT 1h candle opened at 1717.050000 and closed at 1720.660000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 15 · 04:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 05:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 06:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle
Series 02:00 ↑ 03:00 ↑ 04:00 ↓ 05:00 ↑ — now 06:00 ↓ 07:00 ↓ 08:00 ↑ 09:00 ↓ 10:00
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 06:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-15T05:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 06:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
04:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.458 +4.2% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_xYnBL4N1wZNyseAgw7kZGzPE
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 04:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 05:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.15%
Down 47.85%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.001401 sigma=0.006754 score=0.9042 p_up=0.5215

Commitment hash
ebb758a208fdb3153f842a2cce6f9dac4d108b55d415b8b815d5a46335ee5dc7
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
04:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.485 +1.5% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_mYpKb1MNDpy4T28go7Ak4L2e
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 04:35:03 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 05:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.75%
Down 49.25%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.9042 edge=0.0215 sigma_short=0.008556 sigma_long=0.004917 w=0.3500 p_up=0.5075

Commitment hash
9e42fe95ae2dcbf8bd05ad0bbef801883b9eeba3a244fc946b20117f5b909eaf
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
04:35:03
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.554 -5.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ZrAQgKBlDJnJHXvXD3j6Wdq1
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 04:35:03 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 05:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.37%
Down 52.63%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1685.9815 sigma=25.5873 z=1.3600 p_up=0.4737

Commitment hash
d7a29d030392752b6eae6d12abb33c924be8f829ddce224381ce4f7aec6885f8