Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T15:15:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 15:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 15:35 UTC
Open price
$64,100.21
Close price
$64,059.37

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 64100.210000 and closed at 64059.370000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 14 · 15:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 15:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 15:35 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 14:30 ↓ 14:45 ↑ 15:00 ↑ 15:15 ↓ — now 15:30 ↓ 15:45 ↓ 16:00 ↑ 16:15 ↑ 16:30 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 15:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T15:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 15:35:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
15:05:00
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.446 +5.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_05Xg9GbYV9ygTG2KVRELWApQ
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 15:05:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 15:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.23%
Down 52.77%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000445 sigma=0.001204 score=-1.6126 p_up=0.4723

Commitment hash
a2ab7879ef91fceccab9abf3092e3b59d9919a88b886c31b374b0e6d2cb3c2ac
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
15:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.470 +3.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_xpn3ZLedwX3YFP8gor79GXqN
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 15:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 15:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.48%
Down 51.52%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.6126 edge=-0.0277 sigma_short=0.001404 sigma_long=0.001319 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4848

Commitment hash
b2e197bd99cb58fe80c4a351cb8895f2144b376aeba8aec14d63e354dad1224d
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
15:05:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.560 -6.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_L5Xdpj9Zw2WguLKNVzBAYvMJ
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 15:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 15:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.92%
Down 47.08%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64394.8370 sigma=191.5118 z=-2.1476 p_up=0.5292

Commitment hash
006d23f0acfbe284a003320735052b435af29e5d2686b1d1292f2ef6bd7c158a