Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T15:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 15:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 15:50 UTC
Open price
$64,059.36
Close price
$64,034.01

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 64059.360000 and closed at 64034.010000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 14 · 15:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 15:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 15:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 14:45 ↑ 15:00 ↑ 15:15 ↓ 15:30 ↓ — now 15:45 ↓ 16:00 ↑ 16:15 ↑ 16:30 ↑ 16:45 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 15:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T15:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 15:50:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
15:20:00
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.448 +5.2% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_G7zbNOMWVvp7iEvloE9P1vBd
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 15:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 15:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.34%
Down 52.66%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000407 sigma=0.001262 score=-1.4065 p_up=0.4734

Commitment hash
e7ddfe86823ae3e70858ddc49134aefa61892668e526badbb770a8118810c4bd
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
15:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.471 +2.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ZdYR0198o8ngH5kyVlXveKJ6
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 15:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 15:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.54%
Down 51.46%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.4065 edge=-0.0266 sigma_short=0.001556 sigma_long=0.001350 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4854

Commitment hash
b9072a51235662855e891899cd1723f64dd51720a9b06e66a3cdfc2a771cd868
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
15:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.554 -5.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_BlAyv3kzDQm0tEZYDWqReg9n
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 15:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 15:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.64%
Down 47.36%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64373.4905 sigma=199.2138 z=-1.3718 p_up=0.5264

Commitment hash
ee5d35e63f1ac64eddec6af40bd13f425f1c107494b453d72e4a978025e2ffc1