Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T15:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 15:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 16:05 UTC
Open price
$64,034.01
Close price
$64,025.07

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 64034.010000 and closed at 64025.070000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 14 · 15:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 15:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 16:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 15:00 ↑ 15:15 ↓ 15:30 ↓ 15:45 ↓ — now 16:00 ↑ 16:15 ↑ 16:30 ↑ 16:45 ↓ 17:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 16:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T15:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 16:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
15:35:00
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.447 +5.3% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_MLpmeG97DG45SYj6olrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 15:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 15:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.26%
Down 52.74%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000447 sigma=0.001256 score=-1.5515 p_up=0.4726

Commitment hash
496a5dbb38e10eb3162ef1f4e28b803e5f92e33eb33a6ad55ff76d199c243735
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
15:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.470 +3.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_j65YM2E8odpri4rJoPrz3bWe
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 15:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 15:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.49%
Down 51.51%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.5515 edge=-0.0274 sigma_short=0.001558 sigma_long=0.001345 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4849

Commitment hash
f4412e30f9a1a740e1962af1d390e599fc8605f7b56b189ae2f2f733b977ec3e
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
15:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.555 -5.5% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ax15qGLZwk7ZHqX1wrO7n9zR
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 15:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 15:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.66%
Down 47.34%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64346.5590 sigma=203.4065 z=-1.4119 p_up=0.5266

Commitment hash
f40b6644375ae3c7262e043ef8d2bc0b7202d199eb74ef6f35b3a462daf309ec