Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T16:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 16:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 17:05 UTC
Open price
$64,160.09
Close price
$63,942.63

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 64160.090000 and closed at 63942.630000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.8
Opens
Jun 14 · 16:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 16:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 17:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 16:00 ↑ 16:15 ↑ 16:30 ↑ 16:45 ↓ — now 17:00 ↑ 17:15 ↓ 17:30 ↓ 17:45 ↓ 18:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 17:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T16:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 17:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
16:35:00
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.449 +5.1% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ZdYR0198o8ngH5dyVlXveKJ6
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 16:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 16:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.38%
Down 52.62%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000390 sigma=0.001267 score=-1.3411 p_up=0.4738

Commitment hash
afad9cb5e06eed70827ba34bc09cd82842199a2a08e09958b8c54720170d415f
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
16:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.472 +2.8% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_MLpmeG97DG45SYW6olrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 16:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 16:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.56%
Down 51.44%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.3411 edge=-0.0262 sigma_short=0.001509 sigma_long=0.001296 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4856

Commitment hash
f75069b799b08bb37b343e165f3510fd8f0d3f302bf2d055f68622ad938840f2
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
16:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.532 -3.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_A2vnyR7GwK96cy9XDZbz3kL6
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 16:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 16:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.58%
Down 48.42%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64248.0805 sigma=191.8181 z=-0.5868 p_up=0.5158

Commitment hash
fd09911ae9037381a908b0275157515d61f4c1814c2645c422e05a5e3c9963b9