Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T16:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 16:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 16:20 UTC
Open price
$64,025.06
Close price
$64,108.01

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 64025.060000 and closed at 64108.010000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 14 · 15:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 16:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 16:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 15:15 ↓ 15:30 ↓ 15:45 ↓ 16:00 ↑ — now 16:15 ↑ 16:30 ↑ 16:45 ↓ 17:00 ↑ 17:15 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 16:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T16:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 16:20:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
15:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.448 +5.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_7B6ErGaLD5OgTONmw5ylJzve
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 15:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 16:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.65%
Down 47.35%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64317.9595 sigma=205.1222 z=-1.3843 p_up=0.5265

Commitment hash
34ef00d819690cd5c3c69195bce80d640486d3f487f9d034969b77696c8dbe7a
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
15:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.530 -3.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_rQLBEm5WoP72Hpv9D9za01Y4
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 15:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 16:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.54%
Down 51.46%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.4025 edge=-0.0266 sigma_short=0.001528 sigma_long=0.001337 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4854

Commitment hash
adb357f8d0a2120f601498d7b1f5b76d618bf726ba9bd866f5de0d4cdd3fbea6
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
15:50:00
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.555 -5.5% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_WzKkexj7we4xSGOJopr9mNPa
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 15:50:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 16:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.34%
Down 52.66%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000399 sigma=0.001240 score=-1.4025 p_up=0.4734

Commitment hash
8bf7ab8fb9f62d4b19954ab571c960427c8cb8bc33923b65820b447a2ec8642e