Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T02:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 02:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 02:20 UTC
Open price
$65,525.01
Close price
$65,654.90

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65525.010000 and closed at 65654.900000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.8
Opens
Jun 15 · 01:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 02:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 02:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 01:15 ↓ 01:30 ↑ 01:45 ↓ 02:00 ↑ — now 02:15 ↓ 02:30 ↓ 02:45 ↓ 03:00 ↑ 03:15 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 02:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 02:20:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
01:50:00
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.445 +5.5% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ElAm4R7KDW3EF8NdDWZjJOYy
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 01:50:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 02:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.83%
Down 47.17%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.001387 sigma=0.003445 score=1.7552 p_up=0.5283

Commitment hash
898c70fb7575b5780fc0e4550364e7bfbc0cfb53c07bfa4d2caa21d4e3deb00b
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
01:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.469 +3.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_g7xznkbOwq29c3X1VmELRlWQ
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 01:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 02:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.55%
Down 48.45%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.7552 edge=0.0283 sigma_short=0.002490 sigma_long=0.002609 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5155

Commitment hash
7690f818359f8aae558a29b1d114e74a5834b07e419e9c525eeeebbf0f428a9a
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
01:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.540 -4.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_0ZYdGLNvozOETdjkw4nX59rO
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 01:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 02:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.05%
Down 51.95%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65336.2920 sigma=493.9383 z=0.7728 p_up=0.4805

Commitment hash
3f7a7aa9386649b797df7bdbe13cf819ba384680c0a2dbb1a65f3d5e4876b5fe