Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T19:15:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 19:15 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 19:35 UTC
Open price
$65,670.01
Close price
$65,706.64

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65670.010000 and closed at 65706.640000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 16 · 19:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 19:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 19:35 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 18:30 ↓ 18:45 ↑ 19:00 ↓ 19:15 ↑ — now 19:30 ↓ 19:45 ↑ 20:00 ↑ 20:15 ↓ 20:30 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 19:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T19:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 19:35:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
19:05:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.509 -0.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_dnazAerPwl9PcpKeVb97G5lM
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 19:05:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 19:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.56%
Down 50.44%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.2719 edge=-0.0080 sigma_short=0.001784 sigma_long=0.001941 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4956

Commitment hash
5a6a20b9edca3f30c8d5a2c0bc6a7986f7883c6d86eb935e5785e501ec271c98
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
19:05:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.512 -1.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ag9d6j7EwBNgs5b4wJAQ5kqR
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 19:05:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 19:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.39%
Down 50.61%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65822.0305 sigma=125.5659 z=0.2067 p_up=0.4939

Commitment hash
619a1e8871ba4e9fa28267771df9008cf1673708ae43eeeca696ee7341c09c93
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
19:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.516 -1.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_k1qjB4eXVy9jc73KVnpWL3gm
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 19:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 19:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.2%
Down 50.8%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000143 sigma=0.002294 score=-0.2719 p_up=0.4920

Commitment hash
c757d17ff773afbc0e11342c84fc3bb6d589cf74fb4423e155e63f61cb0142d8