Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T20:15:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 20:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 20:35 UTC
Open price
$65,759.99
Close price
$65,721.39

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65759.990000 and closed at 65721.390000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 16 · 20:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 20:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 20:35 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 19:30 ↓ 19:45 ↑ 20:00 ↑ 20:15 ↓ — now 20:30 ↑ 20:45 ↑ 21:00 ↑ 21:15 ↓ 21:30 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 20:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T20:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 20:35:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
20:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.476 +2.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_rQLBEm5WoP72HJpXD9za01Y4
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 20:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 20:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.8%
Down 51.2%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000146 sigma=0.001499 score=-0.4238 p_up=0.4880

Commitment hash
13d0e08eb4b74fec31b8478af7345f90c9e1fa0f96305288b34daf1753270c70
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
20:05:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.487 +1.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_kB1Mx3X5o4zgCxxRV4nQbZN0
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 20:05:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 20:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.34%
Down 50.66%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.4238 edge=-0.0120 sigma_short=0.001980 sigma_long=0.001891 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4934

Commitment hash
c914e380c71b3c1858c2dc5e83a83bc040589a492e5d353433aa83a40cd10aeb
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
20:05:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.552 -5.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_BE2kXa7Qo6ngHggJoy18Alen
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 20:05:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 20:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.52%
Down 47.48%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65810.5500 sigma=110.1686 z=-1.2224 p_up=0.5252

Commitment hash
270e48f620e489792ba26b5e422cdc4031db024d87a324bd17cb110894986eaf