Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T20:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 20:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 20:20 UTC
Open price
$65,675.89
Close price
$65,759.99

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65675.890000 and closed at 65759.990000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.9
Opens
Jun 16 · 19:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 20:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 20:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 19:15 ↑ 19:30 ↓ 19:45 ↑ 20:00 ↑ — now 20:15 ↓ 20:30 ↑ 20:45 ↑ 21:00 ↑ 21:15 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 20:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T20:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 20:20:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
19:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.447 +5.3% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_0MeQn9qmwgznCOmXoYl4kr65
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 19:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 20:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.71%
Down 47.29%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65809.5010 sigma=111.5373 z=-1.4958 p_up=0.5271

Commitment hash
23fb542797e88a6095164a87290fe1e520e1c0790735593ccfb352d6b687ff79
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
19:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.501 -0.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_WzKkexj7we4xS9G0opr9mNPa
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 19:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 20:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.96%
Down 50.04%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.0258 edge=-0.0008 sigma_short=0.001975 sigma_long=0.001928 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4996

Commitment hash
4655a696400a37dabcf5757c5e7225ef40971532db0e0a79b7cd3222ecf0f610
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
19:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.502 -0.2% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_g7xznkbOwq29cd3qVmELRlWQ
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 19:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 20:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.92%
Down 50.08%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000010 sigma=0.001661 score=-0.0258 p_up=0.4992

Commitment hash
c8a1dc75c76c11322aac88ce7780e6ee236da4b6fd4e21b90d4d80fcbd4f932b