Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T20:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 20:30 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 20:50 UTC
Open price
$65,721.39
Close price
$65,843.99

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65721.390000 and closed at 65843.990000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 16 · 20:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 20:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 20:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 19:45 ↑ 20:00 ↑ 20:15 ↓ 20:30 ↑ — now 20:45 ↑ 21:00 ↑ 21:15 ↓ 21:30 ↑ 21:45 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 20:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T20:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 20:50:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
20:20:02
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.477 +2.3% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_Q6El9GNLw7xgsmmlVRbZJ37v
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 20:20:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 20:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.18%
Down 48.82%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65805.6470 sigma=110.1276 z=-0.4146 p_up=0.5118

Commitment hash
6ff963a62a1ee3c8110ae21614d768b88d8d3697a2fe55a3a566e08272059cc9
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
20:20:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.504 -0.4% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_l4L0eAk2wAAgTddNwg3aqryB
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 20:20:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 20:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.8%
Down 50.2%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.1234 edge=-0.0037 sigma_short=0.002024 sigma_long=0.001904 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4980

Commitment hash
8e2bb0ff0202ae8971da0e8269cc75f2bb9816ab5020fddc8fd0abe893dbdd3a
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
20:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.507 -0.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_j2yMmAnQo01giOOjw1W4pqGx
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 20:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 20:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.63%
Down 50.37%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000043 sigma=0.001526 score=-0.1234 p_up=0.4963

Commitment hash
fed7209888138bd60560c849227579ea7d9181003313af055efcbcf1fb77df71