Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T20:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 20:45 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 21:05 UTC
Open price
$65,843.99
Close price
$65,854.00

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65843.990000 and closed at 65854.000000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 16 · 20:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 20:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 21:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 20:00 ↑ 20:15 ↓ 20:30 ↑ 20:45 ↑ — now 21:00 ↑ 21:15 ↓ 21:30 ↑ 21:45 ↑ 22:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 21:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T20:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 21:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
20:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.464 +3.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_BlAyv3kzDQm0tRRLDWqReg9n
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 20:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 20:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.84%
Down 48.16%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65801.0160 sigma=111.6159 z=-0.7134 p_up=0.5184

Commitment hash
97bc4eea37c2cda37e25b86501155a35c830ea84334f6eb880b7047b8a7953e3
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
20:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.509 -0.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ZdYR0198o8ngHAA6VlXveKJ6
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 20:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 20:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.54%
Down 50.46%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.2849 edge=-0.0083 sigma_short=0.001668 sigma_long=0.001869 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4954

Commitment hash
6e3de9ef5c35ccd82dc45cae6e3dcda60c965c5682e34db28919be3b36e77999
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
20:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.517 -1.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_G7zbNOMWVvp7idd0oE9P1vBd
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 20:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 20:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.17%
Down 50.83%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000100 sigma=0.001526 score=-0.2849 p_up=0.4917

Commitment hash
4abb40a53a4afaa33975f45720a60ca362286e872859d2fa5d92c0453a9ffc5c