Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T22:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 22:45 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 23:05 UTC
Open price
$65,720.64
Close price
$65,780.00

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65720.640000 and closed at 65780.000000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
50%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 16 · 22:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 22:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 23:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 22:00 ↑ 22:15 ↓ 22:30 ↓ 22:45 ↑ — now 23:00 ↓ 23:15 ↓ 23:30 ↓ 23:45 ↓ 00:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 23:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T22:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 23:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
22:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.485 +1.5% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ZdYR0198o8ngHAE1VlXveKJ6
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 22:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 22:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.74%
Down 49.26%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65806.0100 sigma=115.8866 z=-0.2510 p_up=0.5074

Commitment hash
918d29a127d4ca454c14e07747ecbb4fa4c108b381a44359624ca87b1be5b0a2
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
22:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.497 +0.3% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_BlAyv3kzDQm0tRanDWqReg9n
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 22:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 22:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.16%
Down 49.84%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000021 sigma=0.001724 score=0.0526 p_up=0.5016

Commitment hash
f0084f1dfe365fe1869aeb8bb5e6afc4be6ee52d6f9418a03046e375654dd9e8
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
22:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.497 +0.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_A2vnyR7GwK96cK6rDZbz3kL6
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 22:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 22:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.13%
Down 49.87%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.0526 edge=0.0016 sigma_short=0.001301 sigma_long=0.001930 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5013

Commitment hash
84b6740889a70f0c0f618aefadf74858c508d843756259ef3c2d08ef91862819