Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T23:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 23:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 23:20 UTC
Open price
$65,780.01
Close price
$65,762.92

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65780.010000 and closed at 65762.920000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 16 · 22:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 23:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 23:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 22:15 ↓ 22:30 ↓ 22:45 ↑ 23:00 ↓ — now 23:15 ↓ 23:30 ↓ 23:45 ↓ 00:00 ↑ 00:15 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 23:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T23:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 23:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
22:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.469 +3.1% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_W4QmKAe0wx4AS4Wawrg8JY5Z
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 22:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 23:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.41%
Down 51.59%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000206 sigma=0.001529 score=-0.5881 p_up=0.4841

Commitment hash
53a67621955fb9b5ab42ecd90b72dd8c83ccf41e0f2e4ffb53e76871c9f07b6b
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
22:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.475 +2.5% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ZrAQgKBlDJnJHRORD3j6Wdq1
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 22:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 23:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.73%
Down 51.27%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.5881 edge=-0.0159 sigma_short=0.001274 sigma_long=0.001925 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4873

Commitment hash
ec6cc7165578fcf75cfa4aea62911433aceeadcffe321d01892b987597214a62
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
22:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.538 -3.8% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_xYnBL4N1wZNysKbyw7kZGzPE
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 22:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 23:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.85%
Down 48.15%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65804.4960 sigma=116.7907 z=-0.7180 p_up=0.5185

Commitment hash
80ae06a275d1fed7f02f671ed285820774fce4bf80663d79cce25a8ae7cbd474