Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T23:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 23:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 23:50 UTC
Open price
$65,732.00
Close price
$65,722.68

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65732.000000 and closed at 65722.680000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 16 · 23:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 23:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 23:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 22:45 ↑ 23:00 ↓ 23:15 ↓ 23:30 ↓ — now 23:45 ↓ 00:00 ↑ 00:15 ↓ 00:30 ↑ 00:45 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 23:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T23:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 23:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
23:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.476 +2.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_dnazAerPwl9PcpyaVb97G5lM
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 23:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 23:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.81%
Down 51.19%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000118 sigma=0.001220 score=-0.4199 p_up=0.4881

Commitment hash
00097177b02b91e0a353ccc81d12b0406268703b051053456f5befec26b57d73
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
23:20:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.481 +1.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_zgjx25nXwLnpHGJeDOd0yZq1
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 23:20:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 23:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.05%
Down 50.95%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.4199 edge=-0.0119 sigma_short=0.001148 sigma_long=0.001866 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4905

Commitment hash
649986525be038d76fa6a4beff2e76e90da74d32affb20e6c4f37c5d9c66377c
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
23:20:02
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.510 -1.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4iamlDEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 23:20:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 23:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.5%
Down 49.5%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65775.8505 sigma=76.7317 z=-0.1685 p_up=0.5050

Commitment hash
89e8cd6c8082f307b58ec6a1cf972ac036df15fd4563a21e6687f00ff26e5a75