Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-17T00:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-17 00:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 17 · 00:20 UTC
Open price
$65,675.02
Close price
$65,751.09

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65675.020000 and closed at 65751.090000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 16 · 23:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 17 · 00:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 17 · 00:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 23:15 ↓ 23:30 ↓ 23:45 ↓ 00:00 ↑ — now 00:15 ↓ 00:30 ↑ 00:45 ↓ 01:00 ↑ 01:15 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-17 00:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-17T00:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 17 · 00:20:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
23:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.470 +3.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_apB6lzPrV3mgtYW2oXAeKd4v
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 23:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.51%
Down 48.49%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65760.7850 sigma=68.9388 z=-0.5527 p_up=0.5151

Commitment hash
cf9c5d0d29a23dbe4c22beb1536279c3906c8b8fd52e19259a9ea895d571c651
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
23:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.517 -1.7% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_40Q536YODN09HPpmwRWvqpr8
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 23:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.17%
Down 50.83%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.3621 edge=-0.0104 sigma_short=0.001082 sigma_long=0.001794 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4917

Commitment hash
375c693a68a2bc12c70bb581f102a253d483450c9c923dca2dffeb9ac922bbd3
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
23:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.521 -2.1% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_zKd58baJDbpLixB5wy92enrk
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 23:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.96%
Down 51.04%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000100 sigma=0.001207 score=-0.3621 p_up=0.4896

Commitment hash
882e0dc83b1724769346fb9041b4773c50c3a3bbbaf301cba2b42214c52309bd