Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-13T02:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 02:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 13 · 03:05 UTC
Open price
$63,837.88
Close price
$63,646.01

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 63837.880000 and closed at 63646.010000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 13 · 01:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 13 · 02:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 13 · 03:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 23:00 ↑ 00:00 ↑ 01:00 ↑ 02:00 ↓ — now 03:00 ↓ 04:00 ↓ 05:00 ↑ 06:00 ↑ 07:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-13 03:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-13T02:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 13 · 03:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 13
01:35:03
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.490 +1.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_dnazAerPwl9PcmJBVb97G5lM
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 01:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 02:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.51%
Down 50.49%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63557.6520 sigma=257.3199 z=0.1646 p_up=0.4951

Commitment hash
1eadc2d3adeb25bb37dc3c279729045742c7a674d4b078cf443eaf194ccbd5cb
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 13
01:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.509 -0.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4ie3XDEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 01:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 02:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.47%
Down 49.53%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.1966 edge=0.0058 sigma_short=0.003069 sigma_long=0.004482 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5047

Commitment hash
78101b3d6a779875db35c67a8d6bd1ed9b7fcbd719cb028fa2604237c6121232
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 13
01:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.512 -1.2% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ag9d6j7EwBNgsjB6wJAQ5kqR
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 01:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 02:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.58%
Down 49.42%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000200 sigma=0.004445 score=0.1966 p_up=0.5058

Commitment hash
e7b18f6bb228f92b38cba725988132aaebcfcdbdf7f6e9b799ac06343dcbc794