Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-13T03:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 03:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 13 · 04:05 UTC
Open price
$63,646.01
Close price
$63,532.00

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 63646.010000 and closed at 63532.000000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 13 · 02:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 13 · 03:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 13 · 04:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 00:00 ↑ 01:00 ↑ 02:00 ↓ 03:00 ↓ — now 04:00 ↓ 05:00 ↑ 06:00 ↑ 07:00 ↑ 08:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-13 04:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-13T03:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 13 · 04:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 13
02:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.456 +4.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_kB1Mx3X5o4zgC1gaV4nQbZN0
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 02:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 03:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.73%
Down 52.27%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63581.6365 sigma=259.9536 z=0.9858 p_up=0.4773

Commitment hash
e0a60d61474ee4b8c1f5680304dc2a924d5fcfaa9c09993b8868447ae3e46ec1
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 13
02:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.530 -3.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_9EjpnQAKwO3OFEYRw5zX1eW6
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 02:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 03:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.49%
Down 48.51%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.7284 edge=0.0187 sigma_short=0.002643 sigma_long=0.004513 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5149

Commitment hash
ed012f764ce5bc8dd8871465fa073ff2499983665c5d2994cba319bac7fd634b
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 13
02:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.538 -3.8% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_BE2kXa7Qo6ngHklXoy18Alen
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 02:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 03:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.87%
Down 48.13%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000712 sigma=0.004259 score=0.7284 p_up=0.5187

Commitment hash
7eb8d4624e3ad1afa318f6c5d9693bd94c5cccc534f70d401ce3cba3bb006c73