Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-13T04:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 04:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 13 · 05:05 UTC
Open price
$63,532.00
Close price
$63,512.01

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 63532.000000 and closed at 63512.010000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 13 · 03:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 13 · 04:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 13 · 05:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 01:00 ↑ 02:00 ↓ 03:00 ↓ 04:00 ↓ — now 05:00 ↑ 06:00 ↑ 07:00 ↑ 08:00 ↓ 09:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-13 05:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-13T04:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 13 · 05:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 13
03:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.492 +0.8% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_rQLBEm5WoP72HklLD9za01Y4
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 03:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 04:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.58%
Down 50.42%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63614.9145 sigma=220.4640 z=0.1410 p_up=0.4958

Commitment hash
c667ac27490d4fdc816479fad7de0871f1f6f896be75af570463b2f5ef3bfba8
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 13
03:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.521 -2.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_BE2kXa7Qo6ngHkrXoy18Alen
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 03:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 04:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.02%
Down 48.98%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.4561 edge=0.0128 sigma_short=0.002009 sigma_long=0.004514 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5102

Commitment hash
6825e71bc69699d54daa71c121700f04b37e4d786b3bfc27e15be1db545afc76
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 13
03:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.526 -2.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_7B6ErGaLD5OgTRBEw5ylJzve
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 03:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 04:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.28%
Down 48.72%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000453 sigma=0.004327 score=0.4561 p_up=0.5128

Commitment hash
643f25036733e64d0838327e0533b19f20e2277830e74f3072fda02cf9aa8d65