Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T14:30:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 14:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 14:50 UTC
Open price
$1,665.12
Close price
$1,656.27

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1665.120000 and closed at 1656.270000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 14 · 14:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 14:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 14:50 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 13:45 ↓ 14:00 ↓ 14:15 ↓ 14:30 ↓ — now 14:45 ↑ 15:00 ↑ 15:15 ↑ 15:30 ↓ 15:45 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 14:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T14:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 14:50:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
14:20:00
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.474 +2.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_KNxe1m9koa6GC6Y4wW628Xz0
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 14:20:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 14:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.69%
Down 51.31%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000146 sigma=0.001354 score=-0.4700 p_up=0.4869

Commitment hash
1d583fbebbc2a2f44e10077c203cf6224fa2a981f1dbf3d5fe3f19dff85fc7fa
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
14:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.486 +1.4% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_A2vnyR7GwK96cyZXDZbz3kL6
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 14:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 14:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.28%
Down 50.72%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.4700 edge=-0.0131 sigma_short=0.001015 sigma_long=0.001265 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4928

Commitment hash
79d110c5008981c64c3fbd8b70e40bd5c33fd819ef8531ff90947196ee82cb65
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
14:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.555 -5.5% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_zKd58baJDbpLi2Xdwy92enrk
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 14:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 14:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.67%
Down 47.33%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1672.2580 sigma=4.0409 z=-1.4200 p_up=0.5267

Commitment hash
cb54e62b90833d284a11cdac7a628dbdf5bffea0008d1c263ae40ac72aabe3a6