Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T18:30:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 18:30 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 18:50 UTC
Open price
$1,659.94
Close price
$1,660.87

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1659.940000 and closed at 1660.870000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 14 · 18:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 18:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 18:50 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 17:45 ↓ 18:00 ↑ 18:15 ↓ 18:30 ↑ — now 18:45 ↑ 19:00 ↑ 19:15 ↑ 19:30 ↓ 19:45 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 18:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T18:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 18:50:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
18:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.468 +3.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4iX2PDEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 18:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 18:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.62%
Down 48.38%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1663.9600 sigma=2.7599 z=-0.6051 p_up=0.5162

Commitment hash
72eb326200f7d83bf2bea430d3e9d38af8d35a5476f09038aa59ca7bb739726c
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
18:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.510 -1.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_zgjx25nXwLnpHAdQDOd0yZq1
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 18:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 18:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.52%
Down 50.48%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.2973 edge=-0.0087 sigma_short=0.001441 sigma_long=0.001569 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4952

Commitment hash
a5857bcc7e7b9d733f692799d5ff58b2a4e330490b2c53410a470ceaf531aeb9
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
18:20:00
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.517 -1.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_dnazAerPwl9PcKBXVb97G5lM
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 18:20:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 18:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.13%
Down 50.87%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000121 sigma=0.001776 score=-0.2973 p_up=0.4913

Commitment hash
0865760ef70fe6110d806feedcc83b3a06f6312f9b6532cd86883293a882673e