Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T18:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 18:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 19:05 UTC
Open price
$1,829.78
Close price
$1,828.13

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1829.780000 and closed at 1828.130000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.9
Opens
Jun 15 · 18:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 18:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 19:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 18:00 ↑ 18:15 ↓ 18:30 ↑ 18:45 ↓ — now 19:00 ↑ 19:15 ↓ 19:30 ↑ 19:45 ↓ 20:00 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 19:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T18:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 19:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
18:35:00
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.489 +1.1% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_05Xg9GbYV9ygTGjOVRELWApQ
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 18:35:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 18:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.46%
Down 50.54%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1827.0500 sigma=12.0508 z=0.1817 p_up=0.4946

Commitment hash
465e7573d2f3e539db9f92a27fdfd967d0f54328ccda3e47ca7c97ccee7bea69
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
18:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.529 -2.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_L5Xdpj9Zw2WguL1gVzBAYvMJ
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 18:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 18:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.42%
Down 48.58%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.6785 edge=0.0177 sigma_short=0.001788 sigma_long=0.003956 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5142

Commitment hash
dec7974aa10789ab82d0e5502916c81e15855631f6eaa96473eb04cfc690ec94
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
18:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.536 -3.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_mYpKb1MNDpy4T265o7Ak4L2e
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 18:35:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 18:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.77%
Down 48.23%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000466 sigma=0.002995 score=0.6785 p_up=0.5177

Commitment hash
99f01019ba6178a036dc54b5fcd1b047d9f3322106835d67272d3b6cd25b20de