Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T19:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 19:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 19:20 UTC
Open price
$1,799.20
Close price
$1,794.38

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1799.200000 and closed at 1794.380000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+1.0
Opens
Jun 16 · 18:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 19:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 19:20 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 18:15 ↓ 18:30 ↑ 18:45 ↑ 19:00 ↓ — now 19:15 ↑ 19:30 ↑ 19:45 ↓ 20:00 ↓ 20:15 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 19:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 19:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
18:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.450 +5.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_l4L0eAk2wAAgTdNkwg3aqryB
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 18:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 19:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.44%
Down 52.56%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1785.2805 sigma=8.5765 z=1.2662 p_up=0.4744

Commitment hash
99b18dd4620ef026a55f508759294c4cc81d16cd18b73217a895e28b6037247b
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
18:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.497 +0.3% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_Q6El9GNLw7xgsm98VRbZJ37v
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 18:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 19:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.84%
Down 50.16%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000051 sigma=0.004107 score=-0.0541 p_up=0.4984

Commitment hash
5f83c06ad98950fd42649dcdd513aa08198a8f64f809fba584d22fd5eb773ed2
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
18:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.497 +0.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_904kZMgdDE6gCPXWoBnQaqEe
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 18:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 19:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.87%
Down 50.13%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.0541 edge=-0.0016 sigma_short=0.002864 sigma_long=0.003937 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4987

Commitment hash
99b988cc5efa033728afe8d3f32edcea24ec7441c5f3638211b19eac3e8252b5