Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T19:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 19:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 20:05 UTC
Open price
$1,798.03
Close price
$1,795.41

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1798.030000 and closed at 1795.410000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 16 · 19:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 19:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 20:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 19:00 ↓ 19:15 ↑ 19:30 ↑ 19:45 ↓ — now 20:00 ↓ 20:15 ↓ 20:30 ↑ 20:45 ↓ 21:00 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 20:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T19:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 20:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
19:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.450 +5.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4iaXyDEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 19:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 19:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.42%
Down 52.58%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1786.5370 sigma=8.4221 z=1.2981 p_up=0.4742

Commitment hash
887ffee193a83078150b2f26cd1e7d0c1667e07bff4e2ad88e20165e76514ca5
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
19:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.523 -2.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_zgjx25nXwLnpHGAaDOd0yZq1
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 19:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 19:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.15%
Down 48.85%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.8664 edge=0.0210 sigma_short=0.003035 sigma_long=0.003610 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5115

Commitment hash
789c1d0fd827073dd120a310385de897f67274dd86a02d3ecb08093a7726c212
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
19:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.543 -4.3% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_dnazAerPwl9PcpKnVb97G5lM
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 19:35:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 19:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.1%
Down 47.9%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000519 sigma=0.002613 score=0.8664 p_up=0.5210

Commitment hash
8bdfa1b5a96fc3e1d78ae95641eccb11d2f7d3fc01c6f03a2e8744bd43b0110b