Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T20:15:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 20:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 20:35 UTC
Open price
$1,794.55
Close price
$1,790.09

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1794.550000 and closed at 1790.090000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.0
Opens
Jun 16 · 20:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 20:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 20:35 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 19:30 ↑ 19:45 ↓ 20:00 ↓ 20:15 ↓ — now 20:30 ↑ 20:45 ↓ 21:00 ↑ 21:15 ↓ 21:30 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 20:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T20:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 20:35:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
20:05:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.460 +4.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_mYpKb1MNDpy4T33do7Ak4L2e
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 20:05:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 20:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.95%
Down 52.05%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1788.1900 sigma=8.6428 z=0.8354 p_up=0.4795

Commitment hash
77a3c6aa1a97b9114286924ca815e1a24de7df2f9a1b3c652710a72eb9afb2f5
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
20:05:02
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.515 -1.5% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_05Xg9GbYV9ygTyy6VRELWApQ
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 20:05:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 20:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.73%
Down 49.27%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.4763 edge=0.0133 sigma_short=0.003133 sigma_long=0.003597 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5073

Commitment hash
0c9657b83fbdb859410c4df06e56ee46ae15dc6538d0686065dc4d981b51b0a3
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
20:05:02
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.527 -2.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ZrAQgKBlDJnJHRX3D3j6Wdq1
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 20:05:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 20:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.33%
Down 48.67%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000282 sigma=0.002583 score=0.4763 p_up=0.5133

Commitment hash
c3eeaea07c75dcc29c30466e9060f0d132d25ceebaff55a4a83861db1af19fe2