Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-13T18:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 18:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 13 · 19:05 UTC
Open price
$64,265.77
Close price
$64,161.46

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 64265.770000 and closed at 64161.460000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 13 · 18:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 13 · 18:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 13 · 19:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 18:00 ↑ 18:15 ↑ 18:30 ↑ 18:45 ↓ — now 19:00 ↑ 19:15 ↓ 19:30 ↑ 19:45 ↑ 20:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-13 19:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-13T18:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 13 · 19:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 13
18:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.468 +3.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_g7xznkbOwq29c0EnVmELRlWQ
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 18:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 18:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.35%
Down 51.65%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64131.4265 sigma=101.6039 z=0.6164 p_up=0.4835

Commitment hash
2ef49e6cb49334c422b3927d3f0449d760f99acb07fa55cc5843baa686dc769e
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 13
18:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.502 -0.2% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_0MeQn9qmwgznCPGGoYl4kr65
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 18:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 18:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.11%
Down 49.89%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.1012 edge=0.0030 sigma_short=0.001750 sigma_long=0.001133 w=0.3500 p_up=0.5011

Commitment hash
0e2e9cee136964f6af2304bec502b52757d0a895b2be303b75cad54e3dd406d3
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 13
18:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.506 -0.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_0ZYdGLNvozOETOLBw4nX59rO
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 18:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 18:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.3%
Down 49.7%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000032 sigma=0.001371 score=0.1012 p_up=0.5030

Commitment hash
e993b450e5739a9cefc77a7e8883d7c7a7acff0e95f73ac31e8190d196eea144