Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T01:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 01:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 01:20 UTC
Open price
$65,626.00
Close price
$65,511.28

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65626.000000 and closed at 65511.280000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.8
Opens
Jun 15 · 00:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 01:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 01:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 00:15 ↓ 00:30 ↓ 00:45 ↑ 01:00 ↓ — now 01:15 ↓ 01:30 ↑ 01:45 ↓ 02:00 ↑ 02:15 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 01:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 01:20:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
00:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.462 +3.8% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_L5Xdpj9Zw2WguLGxVzBAYvMJ
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 00:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 01:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.09%
Down 51.91%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65002.8615 sigma=732.1151 z=0.7548 p_up=0.4809

Commitment hash
5da59424e203072f08980b5374271262be96264030546b81b562af5d5e81f1ee
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
00:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.532 -3.2% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_xpn3ZLedwX3YFPa5or79GXqN
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 00:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 01:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.58%
Down 48.42%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.9196 edge=0.0287 sigma_short=0.002221 sigma_long=0.002487 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5158

Commitment hash
27ae03235e1ca5f78b3b5aa6ca321833ce3f9991bc75bd6f342119d27f3876f8
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
00:50:00
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.559 -5.9% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_05Xg9GbYV9ygTGvYVRELWApQ
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 00:50:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 01:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.87%
Down 47.13%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.001427 sigma=0.003240 score=1.9196 p_up=0.5287

Commitment hash
9d104d1e55f3aba0effe57468fdfb4e53116f5717e1868566d5114a36195c78c