Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T13:15:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 13:15 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 13:35 UTC
Open price
$66,618.66
Close price
$66,841.92

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66618.660000 and closed at 66841.920000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 15 · 13:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 13:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 13:35 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 12:30 ↑ 12:45 ↑ 13:00 ↑ 13:15 ↑ — now 13:30 ↓ 13:45 ↓ 14:00 ↓ 14:15 ↑ 14:30 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 13:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T13:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 13:35:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
13:05:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.445 +5.5% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ElAm4R7KDW3EF8Z2DWZjJOYy
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 13:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 13:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.85%
Down 47.15%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000662 sigma=0.001579 score=1.8268 p_up=0.5285

Commitment hash
2139f7687c71e222106b4eabade53443a6feccfdc7be9e8c6327124b8457c64b
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
13:05:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.469 +3.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_g7xznkbOwq29c3vlVmELRlWQ
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 13:05:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 13:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.57%
Down 48.43%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.8268 edge=0.0285 sigma_short=0.001651 sigma_long=0.001702 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5157

Commitment hash
21b2f3be472d742e0e8aa349ff22ee4adc9388ec64900d8b309092cd1f33e7e0
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
13:05:02
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.560 -6.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_0ZYdGLNvozOETd47w4nX59rO
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 13:05:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 13:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.1%
Down 52.9%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65932.7780 sigma=307.2862 z=2.0525 p_up=0.4710

Commitment hash
873f920ada9e48e44e9fc9c1fe0ed376abfe43931b6927df7f696199b87edb4b