Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T13:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 13:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 13:50 UTC
Open price
$66,841.92
Close price
$66,573.58

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66841.920000 and closed at 66573.580000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 15 · 13:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 13:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 13:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 12:45 ↑ 13:00 ↑ 13:15 ↑ 13:30 ↓ — now 13:45 ↓ 14:00 ↓ 14:15 ↑ 14:30 14:45
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 13:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 13:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
13:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.444 +5.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_7B6ErGaLD5OgTOavw5ylJzve
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 13:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 13:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.13%
Down 52.87%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65977.1110 sigma=337.5878 z=1.9004 p_up=0.4713

Commitment hash
25ef9a5560448697060e99f91cd24937e6c9748d01d48311d1cdcab922240dcd
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
13:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.533 -3.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_rQLBEm5WoP72HpxrD9za01Y4
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 13:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 13:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.6%
Down 48.4%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=2.1274 edge=0.0292 sigma_short=0.001647 sigma_long=0.001610 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5160

Commitment hash
a7b507e6324d04247cce5e9665b481170e2d976581d507ec04a732841f75d4ca
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
13:20:00
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.560 -6.0% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_WzKkexj7we4xSGX4opr9mNPa
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 13:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 13:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.92%
Down 47.08%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000750 sigma=0.001538 score=2.1274 p_up=0.5292

Commitment hash
a21113a685be676b3ac4ffea178810468a051cb31e49bece32f9f82264a9bda7