Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T14:15:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 14:15 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 14:35 UTC
Open price
$66,442.02
Close price
$66,559.99

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66442.020000 and closed at 66559.990000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.7
Opens
Jun 15 · 14:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 14:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 14:35 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 13:30 ↓ 13:45 ↓ 14:00 ↓ 14:15 ↑ — now 14:30 ↓ 14:45 ↑ 15:00 ↑ 15:15 ↑ 15:30 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 14:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T14:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 14:35:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
14:05:00
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.449 +5.1% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_j65YM2E8odpri4QzoPrz3bWe
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 14:05:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 14:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.61%
Down 47.39%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000610 sigma=0.001985 score=1.3394 p_up=0.5261

Commitment hash
95060c3dda0b4ce98dba681861ef364952149d257e1c96acd482cdf5359b094e
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
14:05:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.472 +2.8% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ElAm4R7KDW3EF8J2DWZjJOYy
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 14:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 14:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.44%
Down 48.56%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.3394 edge=0.0261 sigma_short=0.002131 sigma_long=0.001802 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5144

Commitment hash
633cd80cff504d576ca5b75905df1600f359c7ceb170adc339e025417012c909
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
14:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.543 -4.3% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_Gl39jP8konj6smkxoOq1ve6N
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 14:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 14:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.91%
Down 52.09%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66114.9595 sigma=386.6415 z=0.8589 p_up=0.4791

Commitment hash
8bfc5dcbe32a7dff17c1a425f4f432ca1045f5deffdf28f378619bc1246445b1