Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T13:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 13:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 14:05 UTC
Open price
$66,573.59
Close price
$66,447.05

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66573.590000 and closed at 66447.050000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 15 · 13:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 13:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 14:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 13:00 ↑ 13:15 ↑ 13:30 ↓ 13:45 ↓ — now 14:00 ↓ 14:15 ↑ 14:30 14:45 15:00
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 14:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T13:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 14:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
13:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.443 +5.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_9EjpnQAKwO3OFbabw5zX1eW6
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 13:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 13:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.08%
Down 52.92%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66035.4290 sigma=378.6985 z=2.1296 p_up=0.4708

Commitment hash
e3d03f7dac3524534b32d355cf35ff07d3cf38a70e7d51e93c1d8013668f8676
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
13:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.533 -3.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_j2yMmAnQo01gir1Kw1W4pqGx
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 13:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 13:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.61%
Down 48.39%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=2.2675 edge=0.0294 sigma_short=0.001735 sigma_long=0.001675 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5161

Commitment hash
58e2e40d831ce22c5385b2e0238beb4f07b56e695abb2fc67c715e2a3ab7e857
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
13:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.560 -6.0% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_kB1Mx3X5o4zgCmKqV4nQbZN0
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 13:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 13:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.94%
Down 47.06%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000852 sigma=0.001639 score=2.2675 p_up=0.5294

Commitment hash
d2af53446957c1512d560da901138a4ce85ca6ec9cb20ad328ae1c732d250d43