Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T14:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 14:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 14:20 UTC
Open price
$66,447.06
Close price
$66,442.03

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66447.060000 and closed at 66442.030000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 15 · 13:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 14:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 14:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 13:15 ↑ 13:30 ↓ 13:45 ↓ 14:00 ↓ — now 14:15 ↑ 14:30 ↓ 14:45 ↑ 15:00 ↑ 15:15 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 14:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T14:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 14:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
13:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.450 +5.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_A2vnyR7GwK96cyWWDZbz3kL6
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 13:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.44%
Down 52.56%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66075.7075 sigma=390.7620 z=1.2741 p_up=0.4744

Commitment hash
4c8fd349adba6e0b180efec5516338139c8438be9b503aabfa6494a5c46081b9
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
13:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.520 -2.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_MLpmeG97DG45SYJBolrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 13:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.98%
Down 49.02%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.6670 edge=0.0279 sigma_short=0.002376 sigma_long=0.001770 w=0.3500 p_up=0.5098

Commitment hash
b74f747a5be765af90837f417addf0673ff2ea1f86854c7621a3235bbefa688c
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
13:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.557 -5.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ZdYR0198o8ngH5K9VlXveKJ6
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 13:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.79%
Down 47.21%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000726 sigma=0.001897 score=1.6670 p_up=0.5279

Commitment hash
d9bcd39c6a6942f71880a44f519e0b3d4fcc36160fa73a79a8dbf652d4419adf