Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T02:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 02:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 02:20 UTC
Open price
$1,667.08
Close price
$1,675.47

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1667.080000 and closed at 1675.470000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 12 · 01:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 02:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 02:20 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 01:15 ↓ 01:30 ↑ 01:45 ↑ 02:00 ↑ — now 02:15 ↓ 02:30 ↑ 02:45 ↓ 03:00 ↓ 03:15 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 02:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T02:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 02:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
01:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.444 +5.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_673nmr8ZwrGOh4RnV1ePEqxB
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 01:50:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 02:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.9%
Down 47.1%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1674.4610 sigma=4.7806 z=-2.0230 p_up=0.5290

Commitment hash
71cf2a205c78330a8972c55b413b1350467a52d1867e5df2df863e39cc7103b4
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
01:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.521 -2.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_PG178AgpDReXu4YLVeYNrJRd
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 01:50:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 02:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.98%
Down 51.02%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.4541 edge=-0.0128 sigma_short=0.002174 sigma_long=0.003796 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4898

Commitment hash
a64c22cc40f515aa72a698d6c32dbf60017a2df6560d884f9a92ba9b945a5c0f
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
01:50:00
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.526 -2.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_zgjx25nXwLnpHdOJDOd0yZq1
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 01:50:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 02:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.72%
Down 51.28%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000239 sigma=0.002295 score=-0.4541 p_up=0.4872

Commitment hash
eb8b1cab4aff62cc001fb9b9f9861fdac688d5874ea2718b92efb92c3b046f22