Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T02:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 02:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 03:05 UTC
Open price
$1,677.46
Close price
$1,675.59

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1677.460000 and closed at 1675.590000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 12 · 02:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 02:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 03:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 02:00 ↑ 02:15 ↓ 02:30 ↑ 02:45 ↓ — now 03:00 ↓ 03:15 ↓ 03:30 ↑ 03:45 ↑ 04:00 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 03:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T02:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 03:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
02:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.475 +2.5% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_g7xznkbOwq29cxOeVmELRlWQ
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 02:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 02:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.75%
Down 51.25%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000228 sigma=0.002231 score=-0.4447 p_up=0.4875

Commitment hash
7f9e4e5ac447a076df0938973ae3778edf20aec59e3cdbf487992c03a0a046aa
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
02:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.480 +2.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_WzKkexj7we4xS8djopr9mNPa
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 02:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 02:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.0%
Down 51.0%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.4447 edge=-0.0125 sigma_short=0.002368 sigma_long=0.003794 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4900

Commitment hash
7ac09fe7ba7c556a4fbe55f14c04823370b71a7cb29acfd6201b77b3f71eff37
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
02:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.508 -0.8% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_0MeQn9qmwgznCvpMoYl4kr65
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 02:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 02:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.39%
Down 49.61%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1673.5960 sigma=4.6045 z=-0.1294 p_up=0.5039

Commitment hash
15a8d8046ea58ead75e0c3e2c74fbb969e3b23082a58423ccfa7240761ac7a3d