Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T02:15:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 02:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 02:35 UTC
Open price
$1,675.46
Close price
$1,673.00

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1675.460000 and closed at 1673.000000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 12 · 02:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 02:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 02:35 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 01:30 ↑ 01:45 ↑ 02:00 ↑ 02:15 ↓ — now 02:30 ↑ 02:45 ↓ 03:00 ↓ 03:15 ↓ 03:30 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 02:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T02:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 02:35:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
02:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.454 +4.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_zKd58baJDbpLiJ6jwy92enrk
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 02:05:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 02:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.64%
Down 52.36%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000460 sigma=0.001892 score=-1.0587 p_up=0.4764

Commitment hash
ae3b1715d67e89f8925c6dacdd030e7910826f87ecd32465e5b400743c9c4b9f
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
02:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.463 +3.7% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_MLpmeG97DG45SxNJolrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 02:05:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 02:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.12%
Down 51.88%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.0587 edge=-0.0236 sigma_short=0.002187 sigma_long=0.003800 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4812

Commitment hash
be232b04f448daeca132d628fda972279d73fcfd8f6abeec1c20e62fdf1ed1e8
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
02:05:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.555 -5.5% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_A2vnyR7GwK96cG7xDZbz3kL6
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 02:05:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 02:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.66%
Down 47.34%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1674.1970 sigma=5.0282 z=-1.4134 p_up=0.5266

Commitment hash
743aee53429c2f61e6073f5922c9a30c963e0d5e3dce6f86a7ca27950bfc8d56