Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T04:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 04:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 04:20 UTC
Open price
$1,673.25
Close price
$1,670.46

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1673.250000 and closed at 1670.460000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 12 · 03:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 04:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 04:20 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 03:15 ↓ 03:30 ↑ 03:45 ↑ 04:00 ↓ — now 04:15 ↑ 04:30 ↑ 04:45 ↓ 05:00 ↓ 05:15 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 04:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T04:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 04:20:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
03:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.484 +1.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_kB1Mx3X5o4zgCqzbV4nQbZN0
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 03:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 04:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.22%
Down 50.78%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000135 sigma=0.002207 score=-0.2670 p_up=0.4922

Commitment hash
5c300ee4518b6a12bfa3e92a86c82fe6bf8301fc13087b5b694ce1a1df1c3cf1
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
03:50:04
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.491 +0.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_j2yMmAnQo01giPbrw1W4pqGx
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 03:50:04 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 04:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.57%
Down 50.43%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.2670 edge=-0.0078 sigma_short=0.002342 sigma_long=0.002652 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4957

Commitment hash
7c8de37192516821a8b96d4b28251f64b78b84797ad17cda79802fc1315b3216
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
03:50:04
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.510 -1.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_9EjpnQAKwO3OFyryw5zX1eW6
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 03:50:04 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 04:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.49%
Down 49.51%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1672.5035 sigma=3.8056 z=-0.1665 p_up=0.5049

Commitment hash
04b7610d5ca833f6d916f538cb0a33e8ec8b807dbdbb10478dacdfa6856329e2