Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T05:15:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 05:15 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 05:35 UTC
Open price
$1,667.86
Close price
$1,668.66

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1667.860000 and closed at 1668.660000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.7
Opens
Jun 12 · 05:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 05:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 05:35 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 04:30 ↑ 04:45 ↓ 05:00 ↓ 05:15 ↑ — now 05:30 ↓ 05:45 ↓ 06:00 ↓ 06:15 ↓ 06:30 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 05:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T05:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 05:35:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
05:05:00
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.494 +0.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_4BXNaeEbo16gC4BpwkOy0xjq
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 05:05:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 05:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.28%
Down 49.72%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000047 sigma=0.002140 score=0.0953 p_up=0.5028

Commitment hash
b534084d7d2af0d62edf79ad1edb2939842349ca0d52bc4658895209be5c8253
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
05:05:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.497 +0.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_xYnBL4N1wZNysgJbw7kZGzPE
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 05:05:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 05:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.16%
Down 49.84%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.0953 edge=0.0028 sigma_short=0.001804 sigma_long=0.002399 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5016

Commitment hash
d41b6e9aba5ca4018c91c073b57560d4aed8c44cf70aff0bd3cf13f1b66cfb20
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
05:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.550 -5.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_W4QmKAe0wx4AS8rXwrg8JY5Z
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 05:05:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 05:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.58%
Down 52.42%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1672.8530 sigma=4.1310 z=1.1177 p_up=0.4758

Commitment hash
fd996870bcc4d8b47322de6021c570c1a9b5f85c94a05be0ef8b2d1841ccefb4