Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T05:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 05:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 06:05 UTC
Open price
$1,664.76
Close price
$1,664.23

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1664.760000 and closed at 1664.230000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 12 · 05:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 05:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 06:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 05:00 ↓ 05:15 ↑ 05:30 ↓ 05:45 ↓ — now 06:00 ↓ 06:15 ↓ 06:30 ↓ 06:45 ↑ 07:00 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 06:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T05:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 06:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
05:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.481 +1.9% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_K0YXjLbzom6xC5vpw3qMl598
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 05:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 05:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.03%
Down 50.97%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000189 sigma=0.002463 score=-0.3338 p_up=0.4903

Commitment hash
e101757e7cfb2165f8ec6b740f7aa4f3713d4518257735356d72ebfe22f6f559
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
05:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.489 +1.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_26ObeAJmoYqvh2AWojMBk8Xp
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 05:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 05:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.47%
Down 50.53%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.3338 edge=-0.0097 sigma_short=0.002376 sigma_long=0.002514 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4947

Commitment hash
4cef14dc2720b3f32e48203c4386516c891c1156bd365a4a263f4a402a50c49d
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
05:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.542 -4.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_BzW1LX5PDjz5CkjrDOKAlqGM
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 05:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 05:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.05%
Down 47.95%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1672.2340 sigma=4.2800 z=-0.8350 p_up=0.5205

Commitment hash
62263a9376bc561c3400d9bbc951d156cde1c7b7ad585b855812c4d7ad45bb4e