Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T05:30:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 05:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 05:50 UTC
Open price
$1,668.67
Close price
$1,664.76

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1668.670000 and closed at 1664.760000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 12 · 05:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 05:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 05:50 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 04:45 ↓ 05:00 ↓ 05:15 ↑ 05:30 ↓ — now 05:45 ↓ 06:00 ↓ 06:15 ↓ 06:30 ↓ 06:45 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 05:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T05:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 05:50:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
05:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.484 +1.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_mYpKb1MNDpy4TxB8o7Ak4L2e
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 05:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 05:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.18%
Down 50.82%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000159 sigma=0.002474 score=-0.2809 p_up=0.4918

Commitment hash
b55a473996cd4db4deecb155786e5c57ce3ecadeec91733db5621c20aeaa4739
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
05:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.491 +0.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_L5Xdpj9Zw2WguBg0VzBAYvMJ
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 05:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 05:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.55%
Down 50.45%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.2809 edge=-0.0082 sigma_short=0.002364 sigma_long=0.002515 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4955

Commitment hash
0587f0df534d29fae898542a2d6dc188b80e7af8b995b58f3b228168cb600d07
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
05:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.549 -4.9% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_05Xg9GbYV9ygTgLqVRELWApQ
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 05:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 05:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.39%
Down 47.61%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1672.4470 sigma=4.2021 z=-1.0916 p_up=0.5239

Commitment hash
13310d9904d48a0552f1a89e159f96a86304c30e1af2b73a53f67261762b3845