Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T06:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 06:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 06:20 UTC
Open price
$1,664.23
Close price
$1,662.77

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1664.230000 and closed at 1662.770000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 12 · 05:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 06:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 06:20 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 05:15 ↑ 05:30 ↓ 05:45 ↓ 06:00 ↓ — now 06:15 ↓ 06:30 ↓ 06:45 ↑ 07:00 ↓ 07:15 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 06:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T06:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 06:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
05:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.476 +2.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_673nmr8ZwrGOh4lWV1ePEqxB
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 05:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 06:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.76%
Down 51.24%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000252 sigma=0.002501 score=-0.4386 p_up=0.4876

Commitment hash
4360dfe891b9cd9a8062edcb12053046ff8a4fef9fe1a72ba93a61a7209d15f0
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
05:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.486 +1.4% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_KNxe1m9koa6GCgaRwW628Xz0
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 05:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 06:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.32%
Down 50.68%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.4386 edge=-0.0124 sigma_short=0.002443 sigma_long=0.002465 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4932

Commitment hash
3aaf7221714955c6b7e1685d1f257a9bbfc8235b492884f7d2b41883836d3d8f
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
05:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.556 -5.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_PG178AgpDReXu4G6VeYNrJRd
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 05:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 06:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.74%
Down 47.26%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1671.7395 sigma=4.5360 z=-1.5387 p_up=0.5274

Commitment hash
19cfb44321ddfac7abd85e89d6b4693cf0ab211ec81c4f03eeed33620063387e