Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T05:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 05:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 05:20 UTC
Open price
$1,677.48
Close price
$1,667.86

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1677.480000 and closed at 1667.860000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 12 · 04:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 05:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 05:20 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 04:15 ↑ 04:30 ↑ 04:45 ↓ 05:00 ↓ — now 05:15 ↑ 05:30 ↓ 05:45 ↓ 06:00 ↓ 06:15 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 05:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T05:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 05:20:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
04:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.447 +5.3% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_zKd58baJDbpLiJ9Owy92enrk
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 04:50:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 05:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.26%
Down 52.74%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1672.6525 sigma=3.9972 z=1.5480 p_up=0.4726

Commitment hash
9e11f95a386430054f83968d3f843b0c3447a5823539b040f256ad3bd154e8ec
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
04:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.511 -1.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_apB6lzPrV3mgtP74oXAeKd4v
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 04:50:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 05:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.54%
Down 49.46%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.3419 edge=0.0099 sigma_short=0.001854 sigma_long=0.002410 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5054

Commitment hash
d3a8bac9f2c4ea5622085fba060b33c873641b15f6eda6d890f1adaa3f5bf64d
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
04:50:00
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.520 -2.0% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_KNxe1m9koa6GCg4RwW628Xz0
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 04:50:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 05:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.99%
Down 49.01%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000169 sigma=0.002154 score=0.3419 p_up=0.5099

Commitment hash
a277cbbe7de8dcf6c7f13abc70adc44fed0fa3600e4704801fb214da41c12d04