Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T16:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 16:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 16:20 UTC
Open price
$1,845.53
Close price
$1,843.89

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1845.530000 and closed at 1843.890000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 15 · 15:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 16:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 16:20 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 15:15 ↑ 15:30 ↑ 15:45 ↑ 16:00 ↓ — now 16:15 ↓ 16:30 ↑ 16:45 ↓ 17:00 ↓ 17:15 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 16:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 16:20:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
15:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.448 +5.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_BE2kXa7Qo6ngH183oy18Alen
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 15:50:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 16:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.34%
Down 52.66%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1790.2605 sigma=28.3220 z=1.4067 p_up=0.4734

Commitment hash
8dfa098fb818913df97c55a9d05d438e555e598fa1a8499c454d55d80a32a56d
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
15:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.521 -2.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_kB1Mx3X5o4zgCm8NV4nQbZN0
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 15:50:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 16:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.04%
Down 48.96%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=2.5514 edge=0.0296 sigma_short=0.004988 sigma_long=0.003640 w=0.3500 p_up=0.5104

Commitment hash
2fcdf41ecf750879adb94a538f972bf93466bb402bd1d09538bb07c36873d23f
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
15:50:00
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.561 -6.1% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_rQLBEm5WoP72HpNeD9za01Y4
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 15:50:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 16:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.96%
Down 47.04%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.002725 sigma=0.004655 score=2.5514 p_up=0.5296

Commitment hash
eccb5077ec0eb8a960867e5241f49afdd7e48aa52c9c138c115948d7e00e7a9a