Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T16:15:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 16:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 16:35 UTC
Open price
$1,843.89
Close price
$1,842.25

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1843.890000 and closed at 1842.250000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 15 · 16:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 16:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 16:35 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 15:30 ↑ 15:45 ↑ 16:00 ↓ 16:15 ↓ — now 16:30 ↑ 16:45 ↓ 17:00 ↓ 17:15 ↓ 17:30
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 16:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T16:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 16:35:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
16:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.445 +5.5% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_Q6El9GNLw7xgsYQpVRbZJ37v
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 16:05:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 16:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.17%
Down 52.83%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1795.6485 sigma=28.0727 z=1.7769 p_up=0.4717

Commitment hash
dc6e78d0c0fb4044d6fbb6534f8eec060e4858c9bf1966671494abf288128f87
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
16:05:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.533 -3.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_l4L0eAk2wAAgTQlGwg3aqryB
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 16:05:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 16:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.64%
Down 48.36%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=2.7776 edge=0.0298 sigma_short=0.003616 sigma_long=0.003792 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5164

Commitment hash
89559e897814766879e054b2c93040fd79b827cbc6152a96a3b654ca4d84c99d
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
16:05:00
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.561 -6.1% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_j2yMmAnQo01gir0Yw1W4pqGx
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 16:05:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 16:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.98%
Down 47.02%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.003069 sigma=0.004817 score=2.7776 p_up=0.5298

Commitment hash
a51d8be1b7c9b770fa3eddc86506a59429f1e7841116510e031e058ea9a41695